The jailing of President Erdoğan’s main political rival is the low point of a decade-long march towards autocracy – but the protesters aren’t done yet either
By Orhan Pamuk
Mar 28, 2025
Since the arrest earlier this month of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main political rival, Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, on what are clearly trumped-up charges of corruption and terrorism, Taksim Square, the city’s biggest tourist site and hub of political protest, has been lying empty, cordoned off by police. In my 50 years living in Istanbul, I have not seen as many so-called security measures on the streets as I have over the past few days.
Taksim’s metro station and many of the city’s other busiest stations have been closed. The regional government has restricted car and intercity bus access to Istanbul. The police are checking incoming vehicles, and anyone suspected of travelling to the city to protest is turned away. Here and all over the country, televisions are permanently switched on so people can follow the latest distressing political developments. For the past week, the Istanbul governor’s office has banned public protests and political demonstrations – rights enshrined in the constitution. Yet spontaneous unauthorised protests and clashes with the police have continued unabated, even though internet access has been restricted in an attempt to prevent gatherings. The police use teargas ruthlessly and have arrested countless people.
We wonder how such outrageous things could happen in a country that is a member of Nato and angling for EU membership. While the world is preoccupied with Donald Trump, with the wars between Palestine and Israel, Ukraine and Russia, what little remains of Turkish democracy now fights for its life.
The jailing of the president’s chief rival, a politician capable of gaining mass support, brings Erdoğan’s strong-fisted, autocratic rule to a level we have not seen before. İmamoğlu’s arrest came a mere few days before Turkey’s main opposition party was expected to formally nominate him as its presidential candidate during a primary. People for or against the government now largely agree on one thing: Erdoğan sees İmamoğlu as a political threat and wants to get rid of him.
İmamoğlu has won more votes than Erdoğan’s own party, the Justice and Development party, in Istanbul’s last three mayoral elections. When İmamoğlu defeated the party’s candidate in the April 2019 election, Erdoğan had the result annulled, citing technical irregularities. The elections were repeated two months later. İmamoğlu won again. Even more, he increased his margin. At the next round of local elections in 2024, after five years in office, İmamoğlu once again defeated Erdoğan’s party candidate and was elected mayor of Istanbul for the third time. İmamoğlu’s electoral track record and his growing popularity have made him the main opposition candidate who could successfully challenge Erdoğan at the next presidential election.
The flip side to all this is that Erdoğan seems to be using the same playbook on his opponent as the one used on him 27 years ago. In 1998, Erdoğan was Istanbul’s elected mayor and a popular figure. The secular and military establishment deemed his brand of political Islam dangerous. He was also imprisoned and charged (in his case it was for inciting religious hatred after reciting a political poem at a rally). Erdoğan was removed as mayor and spent four months in prison.
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