US support for Israel is collapsing. And Aipac knows it

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee may have succeeded in helping to defeat the pro-Palestinian Cori Bush. But it’s a pyrrhic victory for a losing cause

Aug. 7, 2024

On Tuesday night, Representative Cori Bush lost in a Democratic primary election to challenger Wesley Bell, whose election campaign was overwhelmingly financed by pro-Israel groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac). According the New York Times, the spending by pro-Israel groups “transformed the race into one of the most expensive House primaries in history”. While Bush, an outspoken opponent of Israel’s crimes against Palestinians, is on her way out of Congress because of Aipac’s big spending, the victory for Israel donors is the latest sign of their cause’s decline in the United States and especially in the Democratic party.

How could it be that such a powerful flex by pro-Israel donors is a reflection of a weakening cause? It’s simple: it is because such power flexes were never needed before. Now, it has become routine. Recently, Aipac and company spent huge sums to defeat Jamal Bowman in a primary as well. They made similar efforts against Representative Summer Lee last time, though she was able to survive the onslaught.

In the immediate short term, it seems like a reflection of power, but anyone who has been following the politics around this issue in the United States for years knows this is anything but. Pro-Israel interest groups never had to overtly and heavily interject themselves into electoral politics in such a way previously precisely because their cause enjoy a great degree of cultural hegemony. In the US, politicians kissed babies, petted dogs, loved baseball and unequivocally supported Israel. That last part isn’t quite what it used to be. The consensus around supporting Israel, especially in the Democratic party, has collapsed.

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Over the last two decades, we have seen quite a remarkable shift in opinion on this issue among Democrats in particular. Numerous public opinion polls all provide evidence of the same trend. Democrats especially, but also independents, have grown less sympathetic to Israel over time. A Pew poll from March 2023 found that for the first time, Democrats had more sympathy for Palestinians than Israelis. Importantly, if you look at the charts, the beginning of a clear and steady nose dive that would continue for the next decade is between 2014 and 2015. What happened then? Israel’s horrific month-and-a-half-long war on Gaza which destroyed swaths of civilian infrastructure and killed about 1,500 civilians, most of whom were women and children, is what happened. The barbarity displayed by the Israeli military and the havoc wreaked on Gaza led many Americans to turn away in dismay and ask why their government continues to fund the Israeli military.

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