by Marwan Emil Toubasi
May 1st
In previous articles, I had written about the New Middle East Project, which the American administrations have sought and are still striving to achieve for two decades, due to various considerations that I have referred to, including the political and economic aspects that were announced, in addition to the military security of their ambitions, which the issue of building the sea dock indicates. With the remnants of destruction, including the remains of Gaza’s martyrs, in addition to the revelation of the establishment of a secret American military base in the Negev desert, which reflects a strategic geopolitical change in the region, especially since the talk is about a huge base that includes about twenty-three thousand American soldiers and new and very advanced equipment and weapons. What is new is not only the construction of a naval base and pier of this size in Israel and Gaza, but rather the desire of the United States to replace some bases in Arab countries. This major and unprecedented change in American military policy came after many developments in our region.
Today, more than two hundred days after the ongoing crime of genocide, ethnic cleansing, and displacement in Gaza and some parts of Jerusalem and the West Bank, but in a less severe manner, but more important in terms of the Biblical Zionist political vision regarding the implementation of the so-called Greater Land of Israel project.
Today, Netanyahu is prolonging the war to the point where he is now able to blackmail all parties in the political sense and in the operational sense. Now the bet that has been promoted in the past few days, according to the Israeli and American media and statements by American officials, is that there is an imminent deal based on what is known as the Egyptian card, which is actually an Egyptian card that has been agreed upon to some extent with the parties concerned, such as the United States.
Therefore, Benjamin Netanyahu began to feel that there was a horizon for political achievements that would save him a lot of trouble if he chose to go to a military operation in Rafah or to accept a deal according to what was announced in the draft document. The strange thing here, which explains his statements to us, is that the proposal presented to the Hamas movement, whose delegation visited Cairo in order to provide specific answers about it, then returned and did not give an immediate decision, and the best thing is that they did that politically in terms of waiting, in my opinion, until the terms were completely clear, despite the urgent necessity today to stop aggression. Genocide against our people, but notAt the lowest political cost and allowing the opportunity to complete the aggression at the time the occupying state desires.
Netanyahu is waiting now in order to obtain a political harvest before he takes a final decision regarding the attack on Rafah, and he knows very well that the attack on Rafah is prevented by many major considerations, including the objection of the United States of America, but in terms of the form of the aggression and the details only, without the principle of the attack, and not exhausting the goals. Military declared in everyThe Gaza Strip, but he also knows that not going to Rafah or accepting the deal means declaring the clear failure of a state in exchange for organizing armed resistance.
Yesterday, Blinken arrived in Israel, and before his arrival, the US State Department had made it clear that it did not see any clear plan for Israel to enter Rafah. The United States of America now views the war in a completely different way. In its view today, achieving the goals of the war cannot be achieved by entering Rafah, meaning that the goals of the war cannot be achieved even if Israel enters Rafah. This does not mean, on the other hand, that it will achieve its goals. This is just a political process that Netanyahu promised to the right-wing audience in order to implement it. Despite the crimes that made Gaza an unlivable place.
Therefore, the United States of America, until this moment, does not see that achieving the goals of the war is linked to a military operation, even after the elimination of one hundred thousand of our people among the martyrs, missing and wounded. In addition, this will further aggravate the internal situation in the United States as its presidential elections approach and will not contribute to its stability. afterDemonstrations took place in the streets and on the campuses of American universities to demand an end to the aggression and solidarity with the rights of our people, which is expected to escalate, at a time when the American authorities met them with all forms of repression and arrests, as well as in a number of European universities, specifically in Berlin as well, which shows, on the other hand, the extent of popular international solidarity with freedom. Our people and their national independence and the related necessity to end the aggression and occupation first, and on the other hand, exposing the lie of freedom of opinion and the sanctity of major universities in the West, and exposing Biden and Trump’s demands to eliminate them.
Not entering Rafah now helps so that the United States can, from its point of view, formulate a political process on what is called “the day after the war.” But the main factor in all this issue that is pressuring Netanyahu in particular is the Israeli internal factor in addition to external pressures. The internal Israeli factor is a decisive factor for all Israeli parties that are suffering from the crisis of party politics and at the street level, perhaps in an unprecedented way, and what is linked to the threat to Netanyahu’s political future or even the entire regime and the essence of racist Zionist thought, which is being lost today in Jewish circles around the world that participate in activities. Solidarity with us. Which means that Israel has entered a new structural phase after October 7. Its problems and crises are now exacerbated by the current military moment, with its great political and political losses represented by Israel’s isolation and its standing in the cage of international justice under the threats of international criminal orders to arrest and detain Israeli officials, including Netanyahu himself, as well as the first. The Palestinian issue is before all international levels today.
Most likely, Hamas and the resistance movement will wait at least until tomorrow or the day after tomorrow for the picture of the political communications conducted by US Secretary of State Blinken, who came from Saudi Arabia to arrive here last night on a visit to Tel Aviv, to become clear. In fact, the political battle taking place behind the negotiation process in order to reach a ceasefire is the most important at this stage. Meaning that the United States still insists that it can proceed with the process of regional arrangement by establishing a regional alliance or bloc, at the heart of which is a process of normalization between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel, which is the required prelude to reaping the geopolitical fruits in order to achieve its vision about the new Middle East. Blinken comes to Israel to provide the details of this in order to persuade Netanyahu to accept the proposal that was presented from this angle.
So there is a major political maneuver and game that Netanyahu is trying to draw to the fullest extent in his favor by blackmailing the Americans, Egyptians, and other regional parties, which so far we have not heard from either the United States or the Arab parties that met with Blinken and met before they met with him in the Arab Six-Party meeting. For what steps? Or threatening to take any measures against Israel if it does not agree to a permanent ceasefire and stop the ongoing war of aggression. Therefore, Netanyahu makes his statements clearly according to his vision, and he is comfortable that there is no actual pressure or real pressure on him, neither from the parties in the region nor from the United States. Even the testimony of the US Secretary of Defense in Congress yesterday leaves the door ajar to an operation in Rafah in what appears to be American-Israeli harmony. To blackmail the resistance into accepting the paperWhat Blinken called a generous offer, as the British also called it, which the resistance must accept now.
What the resistance is demanding is what was summarized in the provisions of the decisions of the International Court of Justice in its initial decision, which Israel did not comply with its implementation, and which represents the consensus of more than 90% of the countries of the world, as well as the draft UN Security Council resolution that the United States thwarted with its veto.
Therefore, Netanyahu is betting on the weakness and lack of seriousness of the reactions and the absence of actual pressure with punitive measures on Israel. Regardless of that, I believe that Netanyahu is now very weak. Therefore, when he is “weak Netanyahu,” this becomes clear from his hideous racism, his reliance on anti-Semitic statements, Israel the victim, and his tense body language.
On the other hand, and at the same time, there is a discourse they have saying that Israel does not need, at this time, a military operation in Rafah. This operation is a political operation and not a strategic operation that has nothing to do with the goals of the war. This is now what is being promoted within Israeli society with the support of Eizenkot and the security establishment. And the military in Israel,Therefore, Eizenkot, Minister of the War Council, describes it as an operation for political goals and not strategic goals. Therefore, he says that I see that the attempt to blackmail Netanyahu with regard to a military operation in Rafah is an interference within the framework of political goals and not the interests of the State of Israel, meaning that there is an attempt now underway, with American support, to delegitimize rightThe Israeli government in particular to facilitate the implementation of the American vision that I mentioned. But the most important point for Netanyahu now is that everyone in Israel knows that if this deal fails this time, there will be no new opportunity to turn back time. Netanyahu will be caught in the eye of the storm of the Jewish street in Israel, which says it must respond positively.
But at the same time, this deal seems unsustaining because if the fighting stops for six weeks and the deal is completed, this means that after six weeks and Israel has received all the prisoners and stakes, we will return to bombing, new crimes, and more massacres in Gaza in the first place. I believe that the Hamas movement and the resistance factions cannot accept anything less than the minimum guarantees for a final ceasefire in the second or third phase of what is known as the deal or the prisoner exchange agreement. This is precisely what prompted the Hamas movement to wait and ask first for some clarification of some of the phrases. contained in the proposalEgyptian, until it becomes clear that it can lead to a final ceasefire in the second or third stage in which the prisoners and detainees will be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Although there is a small possibility, I believe, that it is an offer that the Hamas movement can accept if all roads are closed to it. There are many matters in which clear language must be used, written international guarantees must be provided, or they must be included in the agreement that can then be signed. Therefore, I see no justification for accusing the resistance of being the one obstructing reaching an agreement.
The day before yesterday, the Palestinian presidency said that without American support, Netanyahu would not have dared to continue the aggression, and the American administration must intervene immediately to force Israel to stop the crimes, most notably ending the occupation.
I completely agree with that, as it is primarily an American decision. This war was primarily an American decision from its beginning, but the development of the war and its long duration is what made the American administration, and of course, by virtue of the internal political calculations that I referred to in the article, constitute pressure factors on the American administration to try to control behaviorThe government of Benjamin Netanyahu at the present time is in preparation for changing the Israeli government and passing its plans.
But the Arab position so far does not rise to the level of exerting actual pressure on the interests of the United States of America so that it can carry out its role of serious pressure. What is happening is the opposite: the United States is putting pressure on the regional and Arab parties to put pressure on the Hamas movement and the resistance so that it accepts the Israeli and American proposals and perceptions to stop… Shooting and ending the aggression.
The question here is: Is Blinken able to “tempt” the Israeli leadership with such a deal to replace the invasion of Rafah, and that it will lead to a strategic reconciliation for Israel with the Arab countries and to resolve the Palestinian issue in a way that serves American interests in a new Middle East, which I do not believe in guaranteeing the realization of the right to self-determination? Destiny and the establishment of an independent stateFull sovereignty over all the occupied territories, with Al-Quds Al-Sharif as its capital, and resolving the refugee issue in accordance with Resolution 194.
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