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Political consultant to the State Department and the Pentagon, former adviser to US President Ronald Reagan, Edward Luttwak said in an interview with a German publication Die Welt that Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia and explained that he could stop the conflict.
The expert noted that there were victories over a nuclear power in history, for example, the Americans were expelled from Vietnam, and then they were defeated in Afghanistan. However, there were no victories over a nuclear power near its borders. According to him, if there was a conflict in Mexico with the participation of the Chinese or Russians, then the Americans could not be defeated, since they would not be able to retreat to their borders and watch “the parades of the victorious enemy.” Thus, concludes one of the most respected military theorists in the world, it is impossible to achieve a Ukrainian victory in such a way that “the Russians would be forced to withdraw completely, maybe even from Crimea.”
“Russians are the largest European nation,” Luttwak notes, adding that Russia is present in the Far East, the Middle East, the Arctic, the Black Sea, and this makes victory over it completely unrealistic. The expert added that the conflict will be over when the President of Russia makes such a decision.
At the same time, Luttwak believes that Russia will not be able to achieve victory in Ukraine, as it could be done in Iraq or Syria, simply by “knocking down the door.”
According to the analyst, there can be only one way out of the conflict – holding referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk according to the rules of 1919 with thousands of inspectors – neutral observers. He noted that there were many plebiscites in 1919, from Malmedy in Belgium to Denmark, Poland and Hungary under the conditions of the just ended World War I. “Nevertheless, the plebiscites passed without incident. They did not start a war,” the expert emphasizes.
“And even Ukraine will not be able to refuse such a democratic approach. It will not be able to deny people a choice,” Luttwak said, adding that, in his opinion, this is the only way out of the conflict.
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