Forget the far right. It’s the left that may squeeze Macron

Macron’s weakened coalition could lose almost all its representation in parliament in the legislative elections, strangling his centrist agenda

By Victor Goury-Laffont
Jun 17, 2024

While the French far right has been at the center of wall-to-wall coverage since topping the EU elections, it might just be the left that delivers the killer blow to President Emmanuel Macron’s hopes of holding the political center.

Macron may be on the verge of a near total wipe-out in impending parliamentary elections. If polls prove accurate, his coalition’s losses in the National Assembly after July 7 risk being so devastating that he would be a lame duck until 2027 when his term ends.

Just 10 days ago, the French left seemed irremediably torn. Policy disagreements — from nuclear energy to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine — amplified by personal antagonism among its leaders — culminated in vicious mudslinging.

But after Macron’s risky decision to call early elections following the far-right National Rally’s crushing victory in the EU vote, left-wing parties have come together in a swift marriage of convenience.

The country’s four main left-wing forces, the Greens, Socialists, Communists and hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed (LFI) movement, sealed an agreement on Thursday with a shared manifesto to run under one banner, the New Popular Front.

Former presidential candidate Mélenchon and social-democratic leader Raphaël Glucksmann endlessly attacked each other during the EU campaign. Now Glucksmann, whose party landed the third-highest vote in the EU election, seems to be heeding counsel to avoid ego-driven divisions in public and has been mostly out of the limelight.

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This smoothing over, however long it may last, is very bad news for Macron’s coalition, which is now polling a distant third in terms of voting intentions and could end up going from 250 seats to less than 100 in the 577-seat assembly, according to current projections.

French elections are conducted over two rounds — this one will be held on June 30 and July 7. In most cases, only two candidates make the runoff, which means splitting the vote in the first round can lead to elimination.

Had the left parties decided to run separately, their chances of making the run-off anywhere would’ve been slim. But with single candidates in each district, the left has offered itself a chance to become the National Rally’s strongest and main challenger.

Splitting the left vote has become the presidential coalition’s main strategy heading into a short, intense campaign.

The stakes have never been higher since Macron swooped in to the Elysée in 2017: If those who voted for left-wing candidates in the European election follow their leadership and back the New Popular Front, the pro-Macron coalition would make the runoff in only a few dozen of ridings, with New Popular Front vs. National Rally match-ups nearly everywhere else.

If an opposition party wins an absolute majority, the president will be obliged to appoint a prime minister from the party that won the elections. This would force Macron into a cohabitation government, that could lead to a paralysis in governance for the remainder of his presidential term.

Continue reading at www.politico.eu

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