With days to go before the election, there is little sign recent campaigning has had any dramatic impact. A crop of five weekend polls put the Conservatives 11 points ahead, a widening of the Tory lead by about one point, compared with rolling averages.
Boris Johnson’s party’s poll rating levelled out at about 42%-43% a fortnight ago, but that is easily enough for a majority if Labour does not close the gap. Overall, it would not be a much better national vote share than the 42.34% secured by Theresa May in 2017, but the question this time is how the votes are distributed.
Labour has improved over the past fortnight to about 33%, but it is not obvious that Jeremy Corbyn’s party is doing enough to force a hung parliament. Those who like to reflect on the experience of 2017, where the party staged an impressive late comeback, should look at the average polling graphs compared.
The graph tells a clear story: Labour is consistently increasing in a way that mirrors 2017 – but at each equivalent stage, Corbyn’s party is a few points behind this time around, and if anything, the gap is slightly widening.
Read more at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/
